The GT conceptual framework is captured below as responses to four key questions.
Where are we? History has entered the Planetary Phase of Civilization, a profound shift in the condition of society and the dynamics driving change. Multiple threads of interdependence—economic globalization, communications technology, public health, climate change—are binding people, places, and the wider community of life into a single social-ecological system.
Where are we going? Our common destiny remains indeterminate and contested. Very different future paths are possible, depending on how social-ecological crises play out and how we respond. These global scenarios fall broadly into three types: evolution, degeneration, and transformation. Evolutionary scenarios, or Conventional Worlds, envision incremental market and policy responses to twenty-first-century challenges. But the state-centric geopolitical order undercuts effective and enduring solutions to global imperatives, while the dominant development paradigm privileges profits over needs and economic growth over ecological resilience. Quite plausibly, Conventional Worlds could degenerate rather abruptly toward some form of Barbarization scenario.
Where do we want to go? By contrast, transformative scenarios, or Great Transitions, envision a new paradigm that redirects the global trajectory toward a socially equitable, culturally rich, and ecologically resilient planetary civilization. The ascent of a constellation of values—human solidarity, quality of life, and ecological sensibility—counters the conventional triad of individualism, consumerism, and domination of nature. Governance and economic institutions are redesigned to balance the imperatives for unity and diversity, to nurture social cohesion and eradicate destitution, and to support human well-being in a vibrant natural world.
How do we get there? A Great Transition requires a massive global citizens movement active at local, regional, and global levels. The proliferation of oppositional movements is a precursor to such a GCM, but they remain too diffuse and fragmented for the task of holistic change. The Planetary Phase, in forging a globalized community of fate with shared risks and opportunities, makes the consolidation of a coherent cultural and political rising a conceivable possibility. It is up to us to bring it fully to life.